Analysis on the trend of the hottest bleached kraf

Analysis on the trend of bleached kraft hardwood pulp in recent years, the trend of bleached hardwood pulp has attracted China, which is still in the deep development stage of industrialization, informatization, urbanization, marketization and internationalization. Many people adjust the lower jaw seat position and clamp the sample according to the length of the sample; When the experiment of tightening or twists and turns was interrupted, the eyes of colleagues in the industry showed that with the strong growth of demand, the price of needle and broad leaf had been inverted in 1999. However, after reaching the peak of usd700 in May 2000, it fell all the way to the current USD. What will the trend be in the coming period? The author believes that the international hardwood pulp market will face the crisis of oversupply in the medium term (), and the price will remain low and stable, while China will become the main battlefield for the main new commodity hardwood pulp suppliers to compete.

I. The recent supply situation of the international hardwood pulp market

in the mid-1990s, due to the overall prosperity of the international economy, especially emerging markets such as Asia, In particular, China's demand has soared. In response, new wood pulp production projects have been launched. The annual new production capacity is more than 3million tons. The following is a list of major projects:

manufacturer increment (, 000mt) start time

Pt Tel 460

Kiani kertas 400

April 1150

Aracruz 700 2002

VCP 280 2002

a total of 2990 -

all these projects have scale advantages. Investors use the latest technology to actively cultivate their own industrial raw material bases while building production facilities, In addition, the project is mainly located in Indonesia, Brazil and other low labor cost countries, so the overall production cost is low, which has a strong comparative advantage compared with traditional pulp producers

ii. Changes in the demand for hardwood pulp in the world and China in recent years

with the bursting of the foam of high-tech and networking enterprises, the intensification of regional economic problems, and the global economy in an embarrassing situation. We can only expect developed countries to maintain their current economic level or low-speed growth. When developed countries sneeze, developing countries will catch a cold, so their digestion of new capacity is limited. Looking back, China has maintained a GDP growth rate of more than 7% in the past 10 years, and the consumption of paper pulp has been growing at a high speed. Therefore, most suppliers will also place their hopes on China, but can China absorb so much output? Let's first review the import of hardwood pulp in China in the past few years

unit: ton

1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, May 2001

Indonesia 143797 246321 522595 450911 824878 455809

Brazil 29520 64965 72099 137004 142690 26876

Russia 4639061242 77641 102031 116680 72499

total 285191 395062 724598 1 vehicle weight can be reduced by 40 (5) 0% 037119 603577

increase - 109871 32959 36 312521 247917 -

growth rate - 39% 83% 43% 24% -

based on According to the national conditions of our country, the paper industry traditionally uses non wood staple fiber raw materials such as wheat straw and reed. However, after 1995, with the strengthening of domestic awareness of environmental protection and the launch of large-scale high-end cultural and packaging paper production lines, the import volume of hardwood pulp maintained a growth rate of more than 20%. In the next few years, the consumption of broad-leaved pulp will continue to grow at this rate, and it is expected that the import volume will reach 2.5 million tons in 2005

however, even if China's demand will increase significantly, the increased production capacity cannot be consumed, and the situation of oversupply in the international market has become a reality

iii. the downward pressure of the paper and softwood pulp market

due to the launch of large paper machines in China and Indonesia, the exports of South Korea, Japan and other countries were suppressed, and they turned to other markets to seek a way out, which led to a global paper market crisis. At present, the coated paper war between Jinguang and Korean suppliers in China is the tip of the iceberg, and the price of coated paper has fallen to more than USD600. The coniferous wood pulp market is also experiencing unprecedented difficulties, with high inventories, but the price has already fallen below the bottom of previous rounds. It can be seen that the price is still likely to decline. In this case, the price of hardwood pulp is also limited, and it is stable on the cost line, so it is impossible to make major moves

iv. however, we should also see that the international hardwood pulp market also has an upward momentum in the short term

1. The unstable factors of Indonesian hardwood pulp producers are mainly reflected in the political turmoil and the shortage of raw materials affecting the actual operating rate of factories

the political situation in Indonesia will not be repeated here. In terms of raw materials, due to the pressure of domestic and international environmental protection organizations, the area of tropical rainforest that can be felled is limited, while some manufacturers' own industrial forest land has not yet reached the harvest period, and the overall supply of wood chips is insufficient, especially in Jinguang and KK. The operating rate in the past few months has just exceeded half. If you want to know the exact supply, just looking at the production capacity can not fully explain the problem. The operating condition is more worthy of scientists' attention. Scientists have also developed a series of graphene based energy storage materials

2. Supplier's market-oriented production reduction and maintenance. Major suppliers in Brazil and Indonesia have recently announced that they will carry out annual maintenance of machinery and equipment in July and August, and increase market-based production cuts to reduce inventory and supply and promote price recovery

3. Demand growth from China. Part of it is the increment brought by the factory replacing straw pulp with wood pulp at low price. At present, the performance and price of commercial wood pulp are more competitive than the straw pulp made by the factory, which urges the factory to reduce grass and increase wood. However, if the price rises to USD450, some factories will abandon wood pulp and switch back to straw pulp production

on the other hand, it is the storage of raw materials before the start-up of China's major new and expanded paper machine projects. In addition to the normal purchase of raw materials for production, some factories are storing raw materials for new projects to be started next year, especially when the current wood pulp price falls to the bottom, which will give additional impetus to the market. The same situation occurred in 1999. The start-up of paper mills such as Jindong and Asia Pacific (now UPM) promoted the strong rise of the market. However, as the scale of the projects to be started next year is smaller than that in 1999, its role in raising the market is also weak

under the influence of these factors, it is not ruled out that the price of hardwood pulp may rise in the second half of the year. As for the size of the increase, it mainly depends on the role of the above factors, but because the whole basic relationship between supply and demand is conducive to the demander, the price should remain low

the supply of hardwood pulp increases and remains low for a long time, which is conducive to making up for the shortage of wood fiber raw materials in China. It has created a favorable opportunity for the development and structural adjustment of China's paper industry. While increasing the selection of raw material suppliers, we remind all paper-making enterprises to take advantage of the current situation conducive to the buyer, learn from the operating practices of large international paper-making enterprises, and select powerful suppliers as strategic raw material partners to strive for long-term stable supply and preferential conditions